SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Hamburger SV |
29.91% ( 0.42) | 23.81% ( 0.25) | 46.28% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 59.7% ( -0.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.85% ( -0.93) | 42.15% ( 0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.44% ( -0.94) | 64.55% ( 0.93) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.19% ( -0.19) | 26.81% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.89% ( -0.25) | 62.1% ( 0.24) |
| Hamburger SV Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.57% ( -0.63) | 18.43% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.4% ( -1.08) | 49.6% ( 1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Hamburger SV |
| 2-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 6.5% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.91% | 1-1 @ 11% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.81% | 1-2 @ 9.3% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 7.07% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.24% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.98% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 3.45% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.22% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.52% Total : 46.28% |
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