Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SV Darmstadt 98 win with a probability of 53.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 21.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a SV Darmstadt 98 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SV Darmstadt 98 would win this match.
