SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
47.8% ( 0.69) | 23% ( 0.06) | 29.2% ( -0.75) |
| Both teams to score 62.14% ( -0.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.27% ( -0.74) | 38.73% ( 0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.96% ( -0.79) | 61.03% ( 0.79) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.48% ( -0.03) | 16.52% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.73% ( -0.05) | 46.26% ( 0.05) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.44% ( -0.85) | 25.56% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.57% ( -1.17) | 60.42% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.48% Total : 47.8% | 1-1 @ 10.37% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.99% | 1-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 5.76% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.45% Total : 29.2% |
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