SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Adelaide United in this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
28.43% ( -0.21) | 22.4% ( 0.16) | 49.17% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.74% ( -0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.62% ( -0.96) | 36.38% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.49% ( -1.05) | 58.51% ( 1.05) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.62) | 24.87% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.53% ( -0.87) | 59.47% ( 0.87) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.84% ( -0.34) | 15.16% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.24% ( -0.63) | 43.75% ( 0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 6.89% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.2% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.59% Total : 28.43% | 1-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.4% | 1-2 @ 9.34% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 6.71% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 4.09% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 2.77% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.99% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.93% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.11% Total : 49.17% |
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