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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
50.76% ( -1.36) | 20.91% ( -0.12) | 28.34% ( 1.48) |
| Both teams to score 69.36% ( 1.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.97% ( 1.8) | 29.03% ( -1.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.99% ( 2.18) | 50.01% ( -2.17) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.97% ( 0.23) | 12.02% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.5% ( 0.48) | 37.49% ( -0.48) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( 1.85) | 21.15% ( -1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.99% ( 2.79) | 54.01% ( -2.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.5)1-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.53)3-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.32)4-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.15)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.13)5-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.89% Total : 50.76% | 1-1 @ 8.37% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.18)0-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.28)3-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.59% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.28)1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.1)2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.18)1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.16)3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.63% Total : 28.34% |
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