SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
39.83% ( -1.4) | 23.06% ( -0.26) | 37.12% ( 1.66) |
| Both teams to score 65.09% ( 1.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.84% ( 1.54) | 36.16% ( -1.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.73% ( 1.66) | 58.27% ( -1.66) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.3% ( 0.04) | 18.7% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.95% ( 0.06) | 50.05% ( -0.06) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.06% ( 1.51) | 19.94% ( -1.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.91% ( 2.38) | 52.09% ( -2.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.23) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.48)2-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.81% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.62% Total : 39.83% | 1-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.14)0-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.29)3-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.06% | 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.16)1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.19)2-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.16)0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.21% Total : 37.12% |
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