Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.52%) and 3-1 (5.37%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wellington Phoenix in this match.
