SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.79%) and 1-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (11.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Mozambique |
31.16% ( 0.61) | 29.45% ( 0.63) | 39.38% ( -1.24) |
| Both teams to score 43.05% ( -1.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.24% ( -1.9) | 63.75% ( 1.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.99% ( -1.38) | 83.01% ( 1.38) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.89% ( -0.58) | 37.1% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.11% ( -0.58) | 73.89% ( 0.58) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.44% ( -1.69) | 31.56% ( 1.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.04% ( -1.99) | 67.95% ( 1.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.62) 2-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.8% Total : 31.15% | 1-1 @ 13.38% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.79)2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.43% | 0-1 @ 13.5% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 7.79% ( -0.18)1-2 @ 7.72% ( -0.3)0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.94% Total : 39.38% |
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