SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 56.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 17.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.64%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Tunisia |
17.01% ( -0.41) | 26.13% ( -0.47) | 56.86% ( 0.87) |
| Both teams to score 38.57% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.37% ( 0.93) | 62.63% ( -0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.8% ( 0.67) | 82.2% ( -0.68) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.64% ( 0.04) | 50.35% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.1% ( 0.03) | 84.9% ( -0.03) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.69% ( 0.77) | 22.3% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.23% ( 1.14) | 55.77% ( -1.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Tunisia |
| 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 17.01% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.39)2-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.36% Total : 26.13% | 0-1 @ 16.85% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 12.64% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 8.67% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 6.32% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 4.34% ( 0.15)0-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.54% Total : 56.85% |
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