SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Madagascar had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Madagascar win was 1-0 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Gambia |
32.1% ( 1.19) | 29.36% ( 0.07) | 38.55% ( -1.26) |
| Both teams to score 43.53% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.72% ( 0) | 63.28% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.33% ( 0) | 82.67% |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.85% ( 0.89) | 36.15% ( -0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.06% ( 0.9) | 72.94% ( -0.89) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.17% ( -0.77) | 31.83% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.74% ( -0.88) | 68.27% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Gambia |
| 1-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.96% Total : 32.09% | 1-1 @ 13.4% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.5% 2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.35% | 0-1 @ 13.17% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.32)1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 38.55% |
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