SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Gambia | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gambia | Draw | Tunisia |
33.31% ( 0.05) | 27.24% ( -0.03) | 39.45% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.82% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.41% ( 0.14) | 55.59% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.24% ( 0.12) | 76.76% ( -0.11) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.73% ( 0.11) | 31.27% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.38% ( 0.13) | 67.62% ( -0.12) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.49% ( 0.06) | 27.52% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.98% ( 0.07) | 63.02% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gambia | Draw | Tunisia |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 33.31% | 1-1 @ 12.9% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.33% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.96% Total : 39.45% |
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