SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%).
| Result | ||
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Nigeria |
34.58% ( -0.11) | 24.52% ( 0.01) | 40.9% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 59.16% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.29% ( -0.05) | 43.71% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.9% ( -0.05) | 66.1% ( 0.05) |
| Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.29% ( -0.09) | 24.7% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.75% ( -0.12) | 59.24% ( 0.12) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.57% ( 0.02) | 21.43% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.56% ( 0.04) | 54.44% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Nigeria |
| 2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.4% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 34.58% | 1-1 @ 11.4% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.52% | 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.15% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.51% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.6% Total : 40.9% |
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