Fresh off the back of a disappointing run at the Africa Cup of Nations, Ghana will be seeking to restore some pride and claim bragging rights over their West African counterparts. However, going up against the Super Eagles is a tricky test for any side, given their strengths in all departments of the pitch. We predict Nigeria will come away with a slender win, giving the Black Stars an uphill task in the return leg.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Ghana had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.12%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Ghana win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
