SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 46.36%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | Nigeria |
46.36% ( 0.04) | 28.03% ( -0.01) | 25.6% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 43.85% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.67% ( 0.01) | 61.32% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.76% ( 0.01) | 81.23% ( -0.01) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.47% ( 0.03) | 26.52% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.27% ( 0.03) | 61.72% ( -0.04) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.68% ( -0.03) | 40.31% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.05% ( -0.03) | 76.94% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 14.19% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 1.89% Total : 46.36% | 1-1 @ 12.89% 0-0 @ 10.69% 2-2 @ 3.89% ( -0)Other @ 0.56% Total : 28.03% | 0-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.77% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 1.33% Total : 25.6% |
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