SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 37.27%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Nigeria |
37.27% ( -0.93) | 27.14% ( 0.08) | 35.59% ( 0.85) |
| Both teams to score 50.46% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.07% ( -0.25) | 54.93% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.78% ( -0.21) | 76.21% ( 0.21) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% ( -0.67) | 28.45% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.78% ( -0.84) | 64.22% ( 0.84) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.53% ( 0.41) | 29.47% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.52% ( 0.5) | 65.48% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.71% Total : 37.27% | 1-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.13% | 0-1 @ 10.24% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.48% Total : 35.58% |
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