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Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 16, 2024 at 8pm UK
 
SA

Mali
2 - 0
South Africa

Traore (60'), Sinayoko (66')
Niakate (18'), Kouyate (43'), Coulibaly (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mvala (58'), Xulu (77')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 6 at 7pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Lesotho
Wednesday, January 10 at 1pm in International Friendlies

We said: Mali 2-1 South Africa

Despite their injury crisis, Mali have a very solid and experienced squad and will be backing themselves to continue their fine run of results. Les Aigles' have an impressive opening-day record at the Africa Cup of Nations and we fancy them to claim a narrow victory in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 70.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for South Africa had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.96%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a South Africa win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.

Result
MaliDrawSouth Africa
70.95% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05) 19.23% (0.038999999999998 0.04) 9.81% (0.013 0.01)
Both teams to score 38.51% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.06% (-0.123 -0.12)51.94% (0.123 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.31% (-0.109 -0.11)73.68% (0.108 0.11)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.57% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)13.43% (0.054 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.61% (-0.109 -0.11)40.39% (0.108 0.11)
South Africa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.48% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)55.52% (0.053999999999995 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.81% (-0.032 -0.03)88.19% (0.032000000000011 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Mali 70.93%
    South Africa 9.81%
    Draw 19.23%
MaliDrawSouth Africa
2-0 @ 15.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 14.96% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 10.05% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.84% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.92% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 5.05% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.97% (-0.013 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.03% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.74% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 70.93%
1-1 @ 8.81% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.46% (0.037 0.04)
2-2 @ 2.6% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 19.23%
0-1 @ 4.39% (0.015 0.01)
1-2 @ 2.59%
0-2 @ 1.29% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 9.81%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 6 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mali 1-1 CAR
Monday, November 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Mali 3-1 Chad
Friday, November 17 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-3 Mali
Tuesday, October 17 at 4pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mali 1-0 Uganda
Friday, October 13 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mali 4-0 South Sudan
Friday, September 8 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Lesotho
Wednesday, January 10 at 1pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Rwanda 2-0 South Africa
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: South Africa 2-1 Benin
Saturday, November 18 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Ivory Coast 1-1 South Africa
Tuesday, October 17 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Eswatini
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Africa 1-0 Congo DR
Tuesday, September 12 at 4pm in International Friendlies


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