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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade 26 Mars
SS
Mali
4 - 0
South Sudan
Kone (10'), Doumbia (29', 57'), Dorgeles (82')
Samassekou (71')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Toha (74'), Mawa Christopher Lokosang (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies

We said: Mali 2-0 South Sudan

South Sudan have struggled massively for goals of late, and we can see them firing another blank in this one. We also fancy Mali to cruise to a routine victory without having to break too much sweat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 8.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.43%) and 3-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
MaliDrawSouth Sudan
74.25% (-0.509 -0.51) 17.16% (0.281 0.28) 8.59% (0.2261 0.23)
Both teams to score 39.91% (0.090000000000003 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.94% (-0.468 -0.47)47.06% (0.466 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.7% (-0.437 -0.44)69.3% (0.434 0.43)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.92% (-0.262 -0.26)11.09% (0.261 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.53% (-0.578 -0.58)35.47% (0.576 0.58)
South Sudan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.89% (0.232 0.23)55.11% (-0.234 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.05% (0.137 0.14)87.95% (-0.14 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Mali 74.23%
    South Sudan 8.59%
    Draw 17.16%
MaliDrawSouth Sudan
2-0 @ 14.77% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-0 @ 13.43% (0.11 0.11)
3-0 @ 10.83% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-1 @ 8.81% (0.045 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.46% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-0 @ 5.96% (-0.141 -0.14)
4-1 @ 3.55% (-0.058 -0.06)
5-0 @ 2.62% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.92% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.56% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.06% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
6-0 @ 0.96% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 74.23%
1-1 @ 8.01% (0.127 0.13)
0-0 @ 6.11% (0.119 0.12)
2-2 @ 2.62% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 17.16%
0-1 @ 3.64% (0.096 0.1)
1-2 @ 2.39% (0.054 0.05)
0-2 @ 1.09% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 8.59%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, March 28 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mauritania 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, January 24 at 4pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Mali 3-3 Angola
Monday, January 16 at 4pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Algeria 1-1 Mali
Wednesday, November 16 at 7.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Sudan 2-3 Gambia
Wednesday, June 14 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 0-1 Congo
Monday, March 27 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 1-2 South Sudan
Thursday, March 23 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 1-3 Mali
Thursday, June 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-0 South Sudan
Saturday, June 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

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