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SA
Friendlies 1
Oct 17, 2023 at 4pm UK
King Fahd International Stadium
MN
Saudi Arabia
1 - 3
Mali
Al-Dawsari (58')
Albulayhi (13'), Al Amri (79'), Al-Malki (82')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Doumbia (14'), Traore (42'), Sinayoko (71')
Samassekou (10'), Doumbia (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-2 Nigeria
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Mali 1-0 Uganda
Friday, October 13 at 8pm in International Friendlies

We said: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Mali

Saudi Arabia ground out a respectable result against Nigeria last time out and will therefore be confident of repeating the trick or better on Tuesday. Mali have been in sensational form of late and will be primed to record another noticeable success against Saudi Arabia in Portimao. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 19.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.61%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Saudi Arabia win it was 1-0 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Saudi ArabiaDrawMali
19.21% (0.906 0.91) 26.15% (0.033000000000001 0.03) 54.64% (-0.937 -0.94)
Both teams to score 41.81% (1.221 1.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.72% (0.859 0.86)60.27% (-0.858 -0.86)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.55% (0.648 0.65)80.45% (-0.64700000000001 -0.65)
Saudi Arabia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.77% (1.593 1.59)46.22% (-1.592 -1.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.1% (1.204 1.2)81.89% (-1.202 -1.2)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.75% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)22.24% (0.037000000000003 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.32% (-0.053999999999995 -0.05)55.68% (0.055 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Saudi Arabia 19.21%
    Mali 54.63%
    Draw 26.14%
Saudi ArabiaDrawMali
1-0 @ 7.93% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 4.6% (0.252 0.25)
2-0 @ 3.06% (0.171 0.17)
3-1 @ 1.18% (0.115 0.12)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 19.21%
1-1 @ 11.92% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 10.28% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-2 @ 3.46% (0.186 0.19)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 15.45% (-0.52 -0.52)
0-2 @ 11.61% (-0.41 -0.41)
1-2 @ 8.96% (0.093 0.09)
0-3 @ 5.82% (-0.21 -0.21)
1-3 @ 4.49% (0.042 0.04)
0-4 @ 2.19% (-0.082 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.73% (0.092 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.69% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 54.63%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-2 Nigeria
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-1 South Korea
Tuesday, September 12 at 5.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-3 Costa Rica
Friday, September 8 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Bolivia
Tuesday, March 28 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Venezuela
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Mexico
Wednesday, November 30 at 7pm in World Cup
Last Game: Mali 1-0 Uganda
Friday, October 13 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mali 4-0 South Sudan
Friday, September 8 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, March 28 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mauritania 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, January 24 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

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