SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.71%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.65%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Deportivo Riestra |
55.66% ( 0.11) | 27.28% ( -0.02) | 17.07% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 36.2% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.16% ( -0.03) | 65.84% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.52% ( -0.02) | 84.48% ( 0.02) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.78% ( 0.04) | 24.22% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.43% ( 0.05) | 58.57% ( -0.05) |
| Deportivo Riestra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.77% ( -0.14) | 52.23% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.84% ( -0.09) | 86.16% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Deportivo Riestra |
| 1-0 @ 17.93% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 12.71% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.9% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.27% ( -0)Other @ 2.04% Total : 55.64% | 0-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 27.28% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 17.07% |
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