Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 40.19%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.05%) and 2-1 (7.74%). The likeliest Instituto win was 0-1 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
Result | ||
Belgrano | Draw | Instituto |
40.19% ( -0.11) | 29.61% ( 0.09) | 30.2% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 42.34% ( -0.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
35.53% ( -0.28) | 64.46% ( 0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
16.48% ( -0.2) | 83.51% ( 0.2) |
Belgrano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.56% ( -0.21) | 31.44% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.18% ( -0.24) | 67.82% ( 0.24) |
Instituto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.76% ( -0.14) | 38.24% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25% ( -0.14) | 75% ( 0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Belgrano | Draw | Instituto |
1-0 @ 13.9% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.05% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 40.18% | 1-1 @ 13.37% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.02% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.6% | 0-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.63% Total : 30.19% |
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