SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Vietnam | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 71.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Vietnam win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | Vietnam |
71.49% ( 0.03) | 17.27% ( 0.01) | 11.25% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.51% ( -0.14) | 39.49% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.17% ( -0.15) | 61.83% ( 0.15) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.23% ( -0.03) | 9.77% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.5% ( -0.07) | 32.5% ( 0.07) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.23% ( -0.15) | 44.77% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.25% ( -0.12) | 80.75% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | Vietnam |
| 2-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0)3-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.33% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.48% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 3.7% Total : 71.48% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 17.27% | 0-1 @ 3.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 11.25% |
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