SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 53.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 20.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | Tunisia |
53.76% ( 1.64) | 25.41% ( -0.4) | 20.84% ( -1.24) |
| Both teams to score 45.91% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.92% ( 0.24) | 56.08% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.84% ( 0.2) | 77.16% ( -0.2) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.11% ( 0.79) | 20.89% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.39% ( 1.22) | 53.61% ( -1.22) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.03% ( -1.14) | 41.97% ( 1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.59% ( -1.01) | 78.41% ( 1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | Tunisia |
| 1-0 @ 13.72% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 10.74% ( 0.4)2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.34)3-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.12% 4-1 @ 1.91% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.25% Total : 53.74% | 1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.67% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.12% Total : 20.84% |
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