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Austrian Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 21, 2023 at 4pm UK
Merkur Arena

Sturm Graz
2 - 1
Hartberg

Jatta (13'), Prass (42')
Ilzer (17'), Kiteishvili (61'), Serrano (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Lang (4')
Heil (16'), Prokop (72'), Sangare (73'), Kainz (90+3')
Coverage of the Austrian Bundesliga clash between Sturm Graz and Hartberg.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolfsberger 1-2 Sturm Graz
Sunday, October 8 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Hartberg 3-0 Swarovski
Saturday, October 7 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 51.44%. A win for Hartberg had a probability of 24.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Hartberg win was 0-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sturm Graz would win this match.

Result
Sturm GrazDrawHartberg
51.44% (0.094999999999999 0.09) 23.7% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 24.87% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 55.86% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.69% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06)45.31% (0.062000000000005 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.35% (-0.058 -0.06)67.65% (0.058999999999997 0.06)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.36% (0.013999999999996 0.01)17.64% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.75% (0.024000000000001 0.02)48.25% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Hartberg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.83% (-0.10600000000001 -0.11)32.17% (0.108 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.35% (-0.12 -0.12)68.66% (0.122 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Sturm Graz 51.44%
    Hartberg 24.87%
    Draw 23.69%
Sturm GrazDrawHartberg
1-0 @ 9.85% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 8.54% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.6% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.18% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.14% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.69%
Total : 51.44%
1-1 @ 11.16%
0-0 @ 5.68% (0.015 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.49% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.2% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.69%
0-1 @ 6.44% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 6.33% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.39% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.38% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 24.87%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Wolfsberger 1-2 Sturm Graz
Sunday, October 8 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Rakow 0-1 Sturm Graz
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Sturm Graz 1-0 Swarovski
Sunday, October 1 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Rapid Vienna 1-1 Sturm Graz
Sunday, September 24 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Sturm Graz 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Thursday, September 21 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Sturm Graz 2-2 Salzburg
Saturday, September 16 at 6.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Hartberg 3-0 Swarovski
Saturday, October 7 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Hartberg 0-0 Rheindorf Altach
Sunday, October 1 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: LASK 0-0 Hartberg
Sunday, September 24 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Hartberg 2-1 Austria Vienna
Sunday, September 17 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Wolfsberger 0-3 Hartberg
Saturday, September 2 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt
Sunday, August 27 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga


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