SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-0 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sturm Graz | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
25.02% ( -0.09) | 24.21% ( -0.01) | 50.76% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 54.33% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.03) | 47.42% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.36% ( -0.03) | 69.63% ( 0.03) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.82% ( -0.09) | 33.18% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.22% ( -0.1) | 69.78% ( 0.1) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.3% ( 0.03) | 18.7% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.95% ( 0.05) | 50.05% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sturm Graz | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.33% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 25.02% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.21% | 0-1 @ 10.4% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.62% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.87% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.97% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.26% Total : 50.76% |
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