Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 67.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Smolevichi had a probability of 12.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.57%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.5%), while for a Smolevichi win it was 0-1 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.