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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gomel win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Smorgon had a probability of 28.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gomel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Smorgon win was 0-1 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gomel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gomel | Draw | Smorgon |
45.99% ( -0.35) | 25.22% ( 0.05) | 28.79% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 54.22% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.97% ( -0.05) | 49.02% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.89% ( -0.05) | 71.1% ( 0.05) |
| Gomel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.67% ( -0.18) | 21.33% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.71% ( -0.27) | 54.28% ( 0.27) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.92% ( 0.19) | 31.08% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.6% ( 0.22) | 67.39% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gomel | Draw | Smorgon |
| 1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 45.99% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.21% | 0-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.93% Total : 28.79% |
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