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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 61.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 17.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Smorgon win it was 0-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| BATE Borisov | Draw | Smorgon |
61.58% ( 0.2) | 21.15% ( -0.05) | 17.27% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.14% ( -0.06) | 43.85% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.76% ( -0.06) | 66.24% ( 0.06) |
| BATE Borisov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.28% ( 0.04) | 13.72% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.03% ( 0.09) | 40.97% ( -0.09) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.16% ( -0.22) | 38.83% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.43% ( -0.21) | 75.57% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| BATE Borisov | Draw | Smorgon |
| 1-0 @ 10.58% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 61.58% | 1-1 @ 10.01% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.15% | 0-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 17.27% |
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