Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 47.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bahia in this match.