Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 32.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Ceara win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
