Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Santos in this match.