Even though Palmeiras are the superior side, Cuiaba have done a great job of playing above their potential against the elite clubs in the Brasileiro Serie A, and with this match taking place only days after their cup triumph, we expect to see Palestra play with a lot less enthusiasm than usual, which should not be a problem for Dourado, who will want to assure their place in the top flight next year.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
