Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 36.85%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.