Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 59.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.01) 
