Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 52.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 22.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
0.46) 
-0.17) 
