SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Flamengo |
39.38% ( 0.03) | 26.02% ( 0.09) | 34.6% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 53.96% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.57% ( -0.43) | 50.43% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.64% ( -0.38) | 72.36% ( 0.38) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.84% ( -0.18) | 25.16% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.12% ( -0.25) | 59.88% ( 0.24) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.11% ( -0.29) | 27.89% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.49% ( -0.37) | 63.5% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Flamengo |
| 1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.57% Total : 39.38% | 1-1 @ 12.36% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.02% | 0-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.84% Total : 34.6% |
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