Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.
0.03) 
-0.13) 
