Despite Stuttgart's troubles of late, we are predicting a draw in this one on Friday, with very little between these sides on their day.
Were Mainz at home, we would be predicting a narrow victory, but we can see them having to settle for a third successive 1-1 draw at the Mercedes Benz Arena, although this could all depend on who scores the vital first goal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
