Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 53.09%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.46% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.