Atletico have lost the defensive resilience that made them so formidable under Simeone, but with Griezmann and Suarez linking up in the final third, a depleted Milan rearguard could be in for a long evening.
Both sides have under-performed in this season's tournament, but Atletico have proven a tough proposition at home for most sides in recent weeks and will look to boost their chances of a top-two finish at the expense of the Rossoneri's.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for an AC Milan win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
