SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 59.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 1-0 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Red Bull Salzburg win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
59.2% ( 0.48) | 20.61% ( -0.17) | 20.19% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 60.19% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.33% ( 0.36) | 36.67% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.17% ( 0.39) | 58.83% ( -0.39) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.85% ( 0.25) | 12.15% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.25% ( 0.52) | 37.75% ( -0.52) |
| Red Bull Salzburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.52% ( -0.08) | 31.48% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.13% ( -0.09) | 67.87% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.21% Total : 59.2% | 1-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.61% | 1-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.42% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.59% Total : 20.19% |
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