SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.95%) and 1-0 (7.72%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | AC Milan |
56.65% ( 0.07) | 21.11% ( -0.01) | 22.24% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 61.6% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.74% ( -0.06) | 36.26% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.62% ( -0.06) | 58.38% ( 0.06) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.25% | 12.74% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61% ( 0) | 38.99% ( -0.01) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.6% ( -0.09) | 29.4% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.61% ( -0.11) | 65.39% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | AC Milan |
| 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.68% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.44% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 4.07% Total : 56.65% | 1-1 @ 9.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.11% | 1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.59% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 22.24% |
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