Midtjylland are certainly capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Benfica, but we are struggling to back the visitors with any real confidence. Benfica should do enough to claim an advantage ahead of the second leg, but we are expecting the tie to still be open heading into the return fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
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