We said: Chelsea 1-0 Juventus
Chelsea can gain a measure of revenge for their defeat in Italy earlier this season by ending Juve's flawless record and ensuring the race for top spot goes down to the final matchday in Group H.
Though the visitors can be flaky against some of the more modest sides they encounter, they rarely concede many in big games, so will be edged out by the odd goal at Stamford Bridge due to their hosts' wealth of attacking options.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
