Two of Serie A's big guns convene on Saturday evening, as Lazio welcome Juventus to Stadio Olimpico, with both sides sitting outside
the top four.
While the fifth-placed hosts have been undermined by inconsistency, Juve trail them by three points and three places in the standings after a miserable first third of the domestic campaign.
Match preview
Having won only two of their last 33 Serie A games against Juventus - losing 24 times in the process - Lazio are set to face their greatest nemeses at the weekend, as coach Maurizio Sarri welcomes his old colleagues to Rome.
The Biancocelesti have also conceded at least once in their last 16 home games versus the Old Lady, representing their longest streak without a clean sheet against any opponent in the top flight.
While Sarri's men have also been unpredictable in the current campaign, they do remain unbeaten at home since the start of the calendar year, and have accumulated the joint-highest tally of points on home soil this term.
Their most recent success at Stadio Olimpico - a fifth league win from six attempts - came at the expense of Salernitana just before the international break, when Lazio crushed the southern strugglers 3-0, thanks to goals from Ciro Immobile, Pedro and Luis Alberto.
Though Immobile is one of only four players already with at least 10 goals in the top five European leagues this season - along with Robert Lewandowski, Karim Benzema and Mohamed Salah - the Aquile hitman may still be sidelined this week, so others would have to step up to the plate in his absence.
As Lazio seek to seal a club record 17th win at their Roman stronghold during 2021 - which would beat a previous best total set back in 1950 - they will hope a positive result can set them up for a week in which they face a crucial Europa League tie at Lokomotiv Moscow, before visiting Napoli next weekend.
Juventus may have had the whip hand over their Roman rivals in recent seasons but are perhaps at their most vulnerable at the moment, after another sticky spell to end October derailed their hopes of making up ground on the Serie A leaders.
Distant dreams of a Scudetto challenge all but evaporated with back-to-back defeats against mid-ranking Sassuolo and Verona, and Max Allegri's side sit a remarkable 14 points off the top of the table, despite a last-gasp victory just before top-flight football was paused for World Cup qualifying.
Nikola Milenkovic's sending-off for Fiorentina proved pivotal in the closing stages of the match, as former Viola winger Juan Cuadrado found the net with a clinical 91st-minute strike that helped Juve into the relative respectability of eighth place.
Having confirmed their qualification to the knockout stages of the Champions League just days before, the Bianconeri are again hoping they have finally found the right recipe for success, as Allegri attempts to regain his golden aura at the club he led to numerous trophies during his first spell.
After a protracted period marked by injuries and illness, Paulo Dybala is among those trying to rebuild their reputations at the Turin club, and the diminutive Argentina forward has scored more times (11) against Lazio than any other player during his stay in Italy. With three goals and as many assists so far this season, Dybala has almost matched his tally of last term, so will surely target more at the home of his favourite opponents.
Lazio Serie A form:
Lazio form (all competitions):
Juventus Serie A form:
Juventus form (all competitions):
Team News
Tests this week have ruled out any serious muscular injury for Paulo Dybala ahead of the trip to Rome, so the Juventus striker remains hopeful of being involved at some stage.
While his condition will be monitored regularly in the build-up to the match, midfield pair Aaron Ramsey and Rodrigo Bentancur are more definite absentees and Giorgio Chiellini's inimitable presence is also in doubt.
Max Allegri will certainly have to do without Federico Bernardeschi, who was injured representing Italy, but Moise Kean is available and could feature up front should Dybala miss out. Federico Chiesa is another option to join Alvaro Morata in attack for the visiting side.
Lazio, meanwhile, will be lamenting the calf injury which has laid low star striker Ciro Immobile, while Pedro apparently sprained his ankle in training and could be the second member of Maurizio Sarri's established front three to miss out.
The former Juve boss may therefore be forced into starting Vedat Muriqi as his lone striker, or starting Pedro as a 'false nine' if passed fit. Manuel Lazzari could then be pushed into a more advanced position on the opposite flank to Felipe Anderson.
Mattia Zaccagni recently recovered from a knee injury, so offers another option for the Aquile in the creative department, though the former Verona playmaker is more likely to start on the bench.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Lazzari, Felipe, Acerbi, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Alberto; Anderson, Muriqi, Pedro
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, De Ligt, Pellegrini; Cuadrado, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot; Morata, Chiesa
We said: Lazio 1-1 Juventus
Even if Juve's need for the points is relatively greater - given both teams' pre-season expectations - it will be a tough task for Allegri's men to return from Rome with maximum points on Saturday night.
Lazio's home record matches up favourably with most on the continent since the turn of the year, and if their star forwards can overcome injury to play a role in proceedings, the hosts can pick up a point to stay three ahead of the Bianconeri.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (5.97%). The likeliest Juventus win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
