Both teams have suffered tough defeats following the international period, so confidence will not be sky-high in either camp. Lazio's sluggish start to the new season has come as something of a surprise, but their defensive instability could see Atletico sneak a valuable first-day away win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
-0.21) 
0.04) 
