The last league draw between these clubs came almost seven years ago, when Maurizio Sarri was in charge of Napoli. Given their sluggish start, Lazio would surely take a point from this high-profile clash at Stadio Maradona, but the hosts have started smoothly under new management and pose a greater goal threat.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 61.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 17.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
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