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La Liga | Gameweek 3
Aug 28, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio de Vallecas
AM

Rayo Vallecano
0 - 7
Atletico


Isi (39'), Lejeune (65'), Espino (81'), Balliu (88')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Griezmann (2'), Depay (16'), Molina (36'), Morata (73', 84'), Correa (79'), Llorente (86')
Barrios (49'), Griezmann (75'), Hermoso (87')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Numancia 0-2 Atletico
Thursday, August 24 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Atletico Madrid

This is a very tough match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see a home win on Monday. Rayo can be unpredictable despite their strong start, though, and we are backing Atletico to navigate their way to all three points in what should be an entertaining contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Rayo VallecanoDrawAtletico Madrid
29% (1.049 1.05) 26.47% (0.178 0.18) 44.52% (-1.229 -1.23)
Both teams to score 50.44% (0.112 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.99% (-0.167 -0.17)54.01% (0.164 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.55% (-0.14 -0.14)75.44% (0.13800000000001 0.14)
Rayo Vallecano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.49% (0.72199999999999 0.72)33.51% (-0.724 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.85% (0.782 0.78)70.15% (-0.78399999999999 -0.78)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.86% (-0.664 -0.66)24.14% (0.663 0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.55% (-0.952 -0.95)58.45% (0.95 0.95)
Score Analysis
    Rayo Vallecano 29%
    Atletico Madrid 44.52%
    Draw 26.47%
Rayo VallecanoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 8.85% (0.229 0.23)
2-1 @ 6.87% (0.18 0.18)
2-0 @ 4.84% (0.217 0.22)
3-1 @ 2.51% (0.114 0.11)
3-2 @ 1.78% (0.047 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.76% (0.112 0.11)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 29%
1-1 @ 12.57% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 8.09% (0.052 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.88% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 26.47%
0-1 @ 11.49% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-2 @ 8.93% (-0.113 -0.11)
0-2 @ 8.17% (-0.269 -0.27)
1-3 @ 4.23% (-0.138 -0.14)
0-3 @ 3.87% (-0.205 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.31% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.5% (-0.079 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.38% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 44.52%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Granada 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
Monday, August 21 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Almeria 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
Friday, August 11 at 6.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, August 6 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, June 4 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Villarreal
Sunday, May 28 at 6pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Wednesday, May 24 at 6.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Numancia 0-2 Atletico
Thursday, August 24 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Betis 0-0 Atletico
Sunday, August 20 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 3-1 Granada
Monday, August 14 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Atletico
Sunday, August 6 at 3am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Atletico 0-0 Real Sociedad
Thursday, August 3 at 2am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Man City 1-2 Atletico
Sunday, July 30 at 12pm in Club Friendlies 1


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