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Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 20, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
UB

Real Madrid
1 - 0
Union Berlin

Bellingham (90+4')
Tchouameni (37')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Tousart (1')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad
Sunday, September 17 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-1 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.49%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.

Result
Real MadridDrawUnion Berlin
49.49% (0.035999999999994 0.04) 24.07% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 26.43% (-0.041 -0.04)
Both teams to score 56.16% (-0.053000000000004 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.36% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)45.63% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.04% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)67.96% (0.054999999999993 0.05)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.49% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)18.51% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.27% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)49.73% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.91% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)31.08% (0.062000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.59% (-0.073 -0.07)67.4% (0.073000000000008 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid 49.49%
    Union Berlin 26.43%
    Draw 24.07%
Real MadridDrawUnion Berlin
1-0 @ 9.7% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 8.19% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.38%
3-0 @ 4.6% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.27%
4-0 @ 1.94% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.38%
Total : 49.49%
1-1 @ 11.34% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.75% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.07%
0-1 @ 6.72% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.93% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 2.58% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.18% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.53% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 26.43%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad
Sunday, September 17 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Getafe
Saturday, September 2 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Celta Vigo 0-1 Real Madrid
Friday, August 25 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Almeria 1-3 Real Madrid
Saturday, August 19 at 6.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Real Madrid
Saturday, August 12 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Juventus 3-1 Real Madrid
Thursday, August 3 at 12.30am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-1 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig
Sunday, September 3 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: SV Darmstadt 98 1-4 Union Berlin
Saturday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 4-1 Mainz
Sunday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-0 Werder Bremen
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


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