SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Real Madrid |
43.81% ( 0.68) | 23.45% ( -0.49) | 32.74% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 62.48% ( 1.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.89% ( 2.28) | 39.11% ( -2.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.56% ( 2.35) | 61.43% ( -2.36) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.77% ( 1.21) | 18.22% ( -1.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.75% ( 2.03) | 49.25% ( -2.04) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.41% ( 0.97) | 23.58% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.34% ( 1.39) | 57.65% ( -1.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.5)2-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.69% Total : 43.81% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.41) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.19)0-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.48)3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.45% | 1-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.21% ( -0.5)0-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 3.68% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.18)0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.06)2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.74% |
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