Wolfsburg are in disarray at the minute, while Lille are enjoying their best patch of form since Gourvennec's arrival, and the difference in the two sides' form should come to the fore at the Volkswagen Arena.
Les Dogues have lost a couple more big names to suspension but are welcoming back some equally important players at a crucial time, so we expect the French champions to seal progress to the last-16 as Wolfsburg crash out.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 2-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
