Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
